Showing posts with label New Hampshire Debate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Hampshire Debate. Show all posts

Twitter Accurately Predicts Romney Victory in New Hampshire Primary

Published by Julia Volkovah under , , , on 12:37 AM

Mitt Romney clinched the New Hampshire primary Tuesday night, falling in line with Twitter’s prediction that the former Massachusetts governor would be the Republican victor.

Mashable recently reached out to Globalpoint Research to analyze Twitter sentiment regarding the primary, and the results gave Romney a slightly higher lead than the latest polls.

The research firm — which used a weighted metric to combine tweet volume and retweets with detailed sentiment analysis — found that Romney would not only have the edge, second place would be a tight call between Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum.

Romney came out on top with 37% of the vote, followed by Paul (23%), Huntsman (17%), Gingrich (10%), Santorum (10%) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (1%).

Romney became the first Republican candidate to win the first two contests since 1976.

Last week, Mashable asked Globalpoint Research if Twitter could predict the Iowa caucus, and although the results weren’t perfect, they called for a much stronger showing by former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum than the national polls projected. After the closest Iowa caucus in American history, Santorum was defeated by a very thin margin.

The concept of Twitter predicting the GOP presidential race is not necessarily new. In fact, according to research revealed in November 2011, political candidates do better in the polls when they gain more Twitter followers. National polls happen all the time but it’s possible to predict when certain candidates will climb in the rankings based the rate they are followed.

Do you think Twitter can predict how well candidates will do in the polls? Why or why not? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

Perry Unplugged at New Hampshire Debate

Published by Julia Volkovah under , , on 9:29 AM


Texas Gov. Rick Perry is losing and acting like he's got nothing to lose -- skewering fellow Republicans running for president as wimpy job creators and congressional Republicans who spent to much money long before before President Obama was elected.

"Obama has thrown gasoline on the fire," Perry said at the NBC News/Facebook debate on Sunday. "But the bonfire was burning well before Obama got there. It was policies and spending both from Wall Street and from the insiders in Washington, D.C., that got us in this 
problem."

When asked if current front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, was electable, Perry said: "I look from here down to Rick Santorum, I see insiders. Individuals who been big spending Republicans in Washington, D.C." (Perry was exempting former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who stood to Santorum's right).

Perry has registered 1 percent in the last five polls taken in New Hampshire. He has registered 5 points in the last three South Carolina polls.


Look no further for why he did what he did on Sunday. By the end of the debate, Perry had clashed  with Republicans on stage as unelectable, with Republicans in Congress who spent too much, and with the party nominee -- John McCain -- who said Obama was a patriot worthy to lead America. 


In ways he hasn't tried before, Perry also tried to tap into the tea party movement that first rattled the GOP establishment in 2010 through primary challenges and then changed Congress by helping propel Republicans to power in the House (though tea party-fueled Senate candidates failed in Delaware, Nevada and Colorado).


"We need a candidate that can not only draw that stark contrast between themselves and Barack Obama but also stand up and lead the Tea Party movement," Perry said. "2010 was about the tea party standing up and understanding that Republicans, big spending Republicans, had caused...as much of this problem as anything."


At another stage of the debate, Perry said "I hope I'm making Republicans uncomfortable right now by talking about all the spending they've done back in the 2000s when we had control of both (houses of Congress). There's a bunch of people standing up here  that say they're conservatives, but their record doesn't follow up on that."


Perry saved his toughest criticism, however, for Obama. "I make a very proud statement and a fact that we have a president who is a socialist," he said. "I don't think our founding fathers wanted America to be a socialist country. So I disagree with that premise that somehow or another President Obama reflects our founding fathers. He doesn't."


The "premise" Perry disagreed with was that articulated in a Washington Post column written by McCain, the GOP's 2008 nominee, that Obama "was a patriot sincerely intent upon using his time in office to advance our country's cause." McCain also said in the column he rejected "accusations that (Obama's) policies and beliefs make him unworthy to lead America or opposed to its founding ideals."


In a light moment underscoring that Perry has on stake in New Hampshire, the Texas governor recalled without difficulty, the three cabinet departments he would close - energy, commerce and education -- in answer to a question about what he would cut in Washington to reduce federal spending. Perry waded into these water, knowing titters would roll through the audience, for reminding voters he couldn't name the three departments (his famous "oops" moment) at an earlier debate.


"It would be those bureaucrats at the departments of Commerce and Energy and Education that we are gonna do away with," Perry said, a broad and satisfied smile on his face as applause arose from the theater.


Perry then raised three fingers as if to proclaim "I nailed it this time" while Santorum raised three fingers back to Perry in mock tribute as more laughter arose in the hall. Debate moderator David Gregory, host of Meet the Press, said: "And that's your final answer." Perry played along and nodded and smiled, extending a bit long the stand-up-comedy
interlude.


Perry's campaign isn't a parody, though it has vastly under-performed and is the verge of being one of the worst in modern GOP history. Perry's playing, it seems, more and more like a joke - or a place where his only mission is to disagree with all things not his own. 


The joke may have been on his financial supporters. Pretty soon, the only thing Perry will truly be able to call his own is the timing and location of his exit from the race.


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