Gil Monti Chief pilot at ATCA in Phoenix before our flight

     After days of flying with novice pilots, I should have felt completely confident with Gil Monti at the controls of the Beech Bonanza on Friday afternoon. So why was I saying my prayers double-time as we took off from Phoenix Goodyear Airport? Well for starters, both of us were wearing parachutes. 

     Second, Gil had given me graphic instructions about what I was supposed to do once we encountered 2 to 4 times gravity, so that I didn’t lose consciousness during the flight.

     Welcome ladies and gentlemen to my nightmare, uh, my first acrobatic flight.
     Though it was a blast, this flight was not for fun. It was a legitimate part of my observation of the pilot training at the Airline Training Center Phoenix, where Lufthansa German Airlines sends its pilot candidates to teach them how to fly. Before graduation from this school, the students must show they are able to respond appropriately to unusual attitudes and stalls. 

     Illustration of the need for this can be seen most recently in the crash of Colgan Airlines Flight 3407. This disaster occurred on February 12, 2009 when the captain of the plane responded inappropriately to a stall warning on approach to the airport in Buffalo. 

Ben Liebhaber with students Jakob Auracher & Eric Sammet

     As with all air accidents, a variety of factors contributed, but the event pointed out once again the need for pilots to be familiar with the kinds of changes that threaten flight so that they can respond instinctively and correctly. 

     “The control input that’s required has to be automatic,” Gil told me. “You can’t be thinking about what I’ve got to do with the controls. From practice that becomes routine.”

     What struck me during my time at flight school was how airline pilots are trained to have two nearly opposite behaviors; The instinctive muscle-memory response that is immediate, and the deliberative response in which making a decision is many steps down a path of observation, analysis and assessment.

     Now how this relates to becoming a better person was abundantly clear to me even before Gil took me on the upset training flight.

Katharina Spilles and instructor Roberto Acevedo

     I have been known to act impulsively, to reach decisions without proper forethought. What my stint at ATCA showed me is that making bad decisions isn't something I'm stuck with like not being as tall as want or having my father's nose. I watched and learned along with the students at ATCA, who were being taught how to make better decisions.  
     Aviation practically pioneered the study of decision making and the FAA’s Pilot Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge devotes an entire chapter to the subject.

     In its guidance to pilots the FAA found that in many situations “there is usually time during a flight to analyze any changes that occur, gather information and assess risk before reaching a decision.” 
     The pilots at ATCA are trained to use a mental process called FORDEC which helps them remember to gather facts consider options and risks, make a decision and execute it. The handy acronym is a reminder that decision making isn’t an isolated verb but an ongoing cycle of actions, mental and physical.

     During the brief moments when we were flying straight and level at five-thousand feet, Gil and I talked about this. But then he’d do something and the next thing I knew, I saw the mountains through the glare shield and they were up and the blue sky was down and I was noticing how my cheeks felt like they were trying crawl across my face and join my ears on the side of my head.

Acrobatic pilot Gil Monti on an upset recovery training flight

     Then Gil would point the nose of that airplane skywards and we’d make a head over tail vertical loop and I’d wonder, “Had I practiced good decision making before boarding this airplane?” You be the judge, but first, consider this.

     Life sometimes sends along the unexpected when a quick and practiced response is required. But more often, deliberate decision making, aeronautical-style seems like the wisest course of action.

It only stands to reason the three major differences between a typical Tea Bagger rally and one of ours is A) Better-spelled signage, B) a surfeit of actual intelligence and awareness and C) We tend to be much more numerous. What follows below are all the pictures Mrs. JP and I took of the rally today. Much of the signage was hilarious (Click on the images for bigger versions).












































Hey, who's that handsome devil?

Tony Bennett and you just missed him.

Welcome to the Halloween edition of DDBY! If you think the above costume is cool or funny, please go and toss yourself off a building. That costume is atrociously stereotypical and should not be forced on the eyes of anyone. Why are there so many awful costumes every year? If you're going to dress up and take part in the festivities, have some originality! Don't be like fake Cole Hamels here.

As a young lad, I was Rambo for Halloween once. It was quite badass if I do say so myself. If I had a picture, I'd attach it. I was like 7 shark years old, and had a way better costume that all those other kids swimming around as pirates and vampires. Ah, memories...

Last week we went 7-7 bringing us to 58-41-5 on the year. Not a fantastic showing, but the Shark has yet to finish any week below .500.  Hit the jump for this week's winners. 


Broncos (+1) over 49ers
No home field advantage here as this game is taking in place in London. I have to wonder: who the hell chooses these matchups? Shouldn't we be sending two marquee teams to show off the NFL product at it's best? This game wouldn't even make the air in the U.S. outside of the SF and Denver local markets. Doesn't make sense to me. But I guess since they're use to teams like the Reign Fire, they probably won't notice the difference.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Jaguars
The majority of the public is backing the Jaguars. Never thought I'd see the day. But I think the Cowboys are going to win this game handily for a several reasons: 1) They're at home. 2) The team will come out with a "Let's rally around Jon Kitna!" emotion. 3) David Garrard will start at QB for the Jaguars after sitting out with injury (not a good thing for Jacksonville). 4) The Jaguars pass defense is absolutely horrendous.

LIONS (-3) over Redskins
The Redskins should win this game, but I just don't think they will. Check out a few of these Vegas stats: The Redskins are 6-18-3 ATS vs a team with a losing record. In head to head matchups between these two teams, the Home team has covered in 7 out of the last 9.

Packers (+6) over JETS
The Jets have played great and may be at home, but 6 points is too much. Don't underestimate Aaron Rodgers and a defense that is getting back to full strength. Think about it - would you be at all surprised if the Packers won 17-14 with a late touchdown or field goal? I'm sure you wouldn't be. So why would you even think about laying 6 with Jets? Cause you're silly, that's why.

RAMS (-3) over Panthers
This is a shady ass line. Against my better judgment, I'll bet on the Rams here. They're the better team and have played extremely well at home. I just have a bad feeling. If I were you, I wouldn't bet it. If you must, take the team that has been more consistent.

Dolphins (+1.5) over BENGALS
As you know, I hate the overrated Bengals. Things aren't changing this week. The Dolphins are a better team than most people give them credit for, and they should've won last week against Pittsburgh. The Bengals give me nothing to like and are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

CHIEFS (-7.5) over Bills
Now that I'm finally picking the Chiefs, you do realize they'll lose this game 27-10, don't you? I promised I'd pick them in Week 8 if they proved me wrong again, so I'll stay true to my word. The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread this year and I'm quite sure I've gotten all those games wrong. They're at home against a Bills team that cannot stop the run. 8 points is a lot and I'll probably be bitching next week, but mark it down for K.C.

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Titans
San Diego screwed me over last week, but truuust me, they got this against the Titties. The Chargers are at home and have their backs against the wall after suffering a loss at the hands of the Patriots. I have to believe they'll come out firing and not make this game much of a contest. This is one of my favorite plays of the week.

CARDINALS (-3) over Buccaneers
Both of these aren't very good. I think the Buccaneers got a little overrated early on this season, but I feel these teams are pretty evenly matched. Go with the home team and take solace in the fact that Beanie Wells should have his first big game of the year. He should easily rack up yards against the Bucs terrible run defense.

Seahawks (+3) over RAIDERS
As sad as it is to say this, the Seahawks may actually win their division. I feel dirty saying that. On a side note, Marshawn Lynch is the ugliest player in the NFL, right? He could even be in the top 3 of all-time ugly sports figures. He falls right in line with some of the past ugly-face greats: Sam Cassell and Tyrone Hill. Anyway, the Raiders just scream let down after blowing their load against the Broncos last week. Seahawks should win easy.

Vikings (+5) over PATRIOTS
I hate having to pick this game. The Vikings have the pieces but keep forcing the square peg in the round hole. The Patriots defense just makes nervous. Regardless of opponent, they are susceptible to giving up big plays. Take the points and hope the Randy Moss revenge factor is the difference. A completely focused and motivated Randy Moss is still the best receiver in football.

Steelers (-1) over SAINTS
I feel like I might be walking into a trap, but simply put, the Steelers are the superior team. Drew Brees has looked bad against defensive units that aren't nearly as good as the one he'll face Sunday.

COLTS (-5.5) over Texans
I was tempted to go with the Texans here, but then remembered one of the Shark's golden rules: Never, under any circumstances, bet against Peyton Manning in nationally televised primetime game. Ever.

Good luck and enjoy the games!

Daniel Wies practices cross-country flying in Phoenix

Who is more courageous? The journalist who climbs into the back seat of a single engine airplane piloted by a baby-faced student pilot with less than a month's flying experience or the pilot, who with a grin and plenty of grace allowed this inquisitive matron to layer another distraction on to his overloaded plate?

I vote for the pilot. And since I am back in my dorm room at the Airline Training Center Arizona, with photos and an account of the flight, you know how it all turned out. We landed safely - all of us the wiser for the two hours we spent in the air over Phoenix. But I'm going to tell you what the photos won't show.



Daniel Weis, the student who hopes one day to fly the line as a pilot for Lufthansa, was the picture of focused concentration, as he flew the lemon yellow Bonanza from airport to airport across the Phoenix metro area this afternoon. As if handing the flight controls, navigating the small plane through jagged buttes, finding unfamiliar airports and doing repeated landings and takeoffs in cross wind wasn't enough, here are some of the unexpected complications Daniel had to deal with during the flight.

• A take-off clearance that included "make it a quick departure to accommodate incoming traffic"
• A warning that parachutists had just been dropped nearby at our altitude
• A notice of birds in the area
• Helicopters practicing touch-and-go landings

A lot of additional stress, if you ask me, but Daniel tackled the incoming with remarkable calm as his flight instructor Scott Wemple, prompted him to stay on top of it all. 

Wies with his instructor Scott Wemple

"He has twenty things to do in the time to do fifteen," Scott told me even before we'd taken off. The ability to fly the plane and keep ahead of all of those tasks is the challenge for Daniel and all pilots, not just the new ones or the wanna-bes.

Back at the center later in the afternoon, no one was as sympathetic as I about the challenges Daniel had successfully fielded. As I sat in the shade with Gil Monti, ATCA's chief pilot and an aerobatic pilot he explained, good flying is like playing a mental chess game. "Pilots are thinking ahead, 'where will I be 8-10 minutes from now?' They are forming a mental picture of the future."

Wound up now, Gil needed little prompting to get right behind the notion that Flying Lessons have practical applicability outside of aviation. "Many people listen to the radio or hold a conversation while they drive. But they're not driving defensively," he told me. When I drive, he said, "I'm never just looking at the guy in front of me, I'm continually looking at the traffic in front of him and anticipating what the guy in front me is going to do. I'm always looking in my rear view mirror so I know what's happening behind me and beside me."

Pilots, Gil explained to me, are "thinking of the big picture, were not just in-the-moment, we're always calculating situations developing."

Gil's example of driving suggests that the dialogue I often hear, "Can I safely drive and talk on the phone, or listen to a book on tape (busted!) isn't really the point. The more appropriate question is; Do these distractions reduce the quality of our attention and therefore degrade our performance? I'm guessing yes.

Daniel and his fellow students will spend four months here, learning not only how to handle an airplane but how to handle the distractions inherent in the act of flying.

Here on the ground, we're embracing unnecessary distractions with a bring-it-on-enthusiasm without the training or apparently, the wisdom to appreciate the risk.

Joe Blanton signed a 3-year, $24M extension last offseason, keeping him in a Phillies uniform through the 2012 season. This made some sense for the Phillies (minus the whole ‘should have just kept Cliff Lee with that money’ thing which I’m not going to get into) since he asked for $10.25M in arbitration, and the Phillies countered with $7.5M. Meeting in between was a good idea, since the arbitration process can be difficult to predict. Plus, the Phillies were keeping a reliable arm, someone that had just come off a pretty good year, who is fully capable of pitching 200 innings to a 4.10 ERA. That’s useful.

However, Joe Blanton start to the season had people yelling to remove him from the rotation. Through his first eight starts of 2010, Blanton sat at a 7.28 ERA and his peripheral stats supported that lousy number. His FIP sat at 5.34 in May and 5.16 in June and his xFIP numbers were just as close. His K/9 rate was awful (4.5 in May, a season low) and he gave up 13 homers in his first 11 starts. The numbers just didn’t look good for Joe.

Thankfully, something turned around in July. From the All-Star break on he started 15 games, pitching to a 3.33 ERA (this doesn’t include his one game relief appearance). His K/9 rate rebounded to 7.89, which helps explain the ERA drop. Couple that with fewer walks and HR allowed and suddenly he was back to being a reliable 4th starter (which is what he was once the Phillies grabbed Oswalt). From the naked eye, it would appear that the early season strained oblique Joe suffered in spring training probably delayed him in getting up to speed. That and the fact that he may just be a slow starter (since he had an equally bad start to 2009, although it ended a little quicker then).

In looking at the numbers, it was striking how similar a pitcher he was to 2009 (his xFIP numbers were almost exactly the same) except for one major difference: he learned a cutter. In the past, Blanton was primarily a fastball, slider, changeup pitcher, occasionally throwing a curveball (not a very good one, mind you). This season, like most Phillies pitchers though, he started to work in a cutter. This came at the detriment of his slider, his second best pitch historically, which he threw less often. That change may account for some of the early season woes as well. As we saw with Hamels early in the year as well, the cutter is a very powerful pitch, if you know how to throw it. If not, it’s basically a slower fastball that hangs in the middle of the plate. That isn’t good. Another offseason to work on the pitch should be very beneficial for Blanton’s 2011 performance.

Overall, Joe Blanton really is what he is. He’s a decent starter, averaging exactly 2.0 WAR in the past three seasons. He’s getting paid a contract that he’s worth, as he’s set to make $8.5M both this year and next. I really couldn’t sum it up better than in this chart from Fangraphs.com:



See, he really is about as average as possible. And you know what? Sometimes, especially in the National League, average is plenty good enough.
Next up, Ryan Madson.

[chart courtesy of Fangraphs.com]

The two questions that first spring to mind are, why isn't Rand Paul campaign coordinator/professional thug Tim Profitt in jail for curb-stomping a defenseless woman and why does he think she owes him an apology? An apology for what, putting her head and shoulder under his jackboot?

Another question I'd like to add is, considering that Profitt is not only still a free man and that there are no pending assault charges and nothing worse than a criminal summons against him, how come Democrat Jon Taylor was arrested, wrestled to the ground and charged with three crimes just for peacefully appearing at an Eric Cantor event with an invitation?

And, while I hate to side with Tim Profitt on this issue, how come Kentucky police let things get so out of hand that a woman was openly assaulted when they were certainly within range to do something about it if not prevent it?

It would be easy to dismiss these random acts of violence visited on Democrats and liberal activists on campaign staffers and supporters but the one fact that no one had addressed is why the police are letting them get away with it? Anyone keeping track of the rise in right wing violence as the midterms approach will see an unmistakable pattern of the police aiding and abetting such violence if not not actually taking part in it. After all, why would Jon Taylor get tossed from a coffee shop when he had an invitation to the Cantor event? It seems to more than suggest that if you're a Republican, you have the right to create your own little (Sorry, Ms. O'Donnell) witch hunt. Just point your finger at a Democrat, tell lies such as him disturbing the peace and the local constabulary will be only too glad to do your bidding. It seems for every Victor Phillips, there are 100 Tim Profitts and Alan Wests.


So, what's going on? Is police protection only for Republicans in spite of the fact that they and they alone are calling for "2nd amendment remedies" and hiring bikers and other camera-blocking, unlicensed thugs to do security at a middle school?

Well, I have had enough. Mrs. JP and I are going to be at the rallies from start to finish. And to anyone out there planning on organizing a counter rally to the Stewart/Colbert counter rallies, I have one thing to say to you:

Try and start trouble, I'll step on you like I would an over ripe grape. Just try to disrupt this rally with your right wing thuggery and you'll be outnumbered probably by at least 1000 to 1 and I'll be right at the vanguard taping the whole thing. It's a public event and anyone can come but that doesn't give you the right to start violence. You start it, I'll finish it if I have anything to say about it.

Because I've had it with us being the nice guys and I think we all know what Leo Durocher said about nice guys. You don't want to be treaded on by our big, bad Socialist government? Fine.

But you can't tread on us, either, starting with me.

An article over at the Wall Street Journal has validated all of the hatred I have for NFL pregame shows. They are completely unnecessary, completely annoying, and completely un-funny. I haven't watched a pregame show in years, and I'm a much happier person for it.

I honestly don't know who is devoting their time to these shows. We don't care about the shitty montage you've put together of last week's big hits or an interview where Pam Oliver verbally fellates Drew Brees. There's better stuff on the internet. There was a time NFL pregame shows were a great source of last minute fantasy football updates, but no longer is that remotely true.  I can Google whether or not Joseph Addai is playing a helluva lot faster than it takes these dopes to shut up and turn it over to Jay Glazer.

But nothing is more annoying than the forced banter and jokes that fly during each week's pregame show. It's all fake and it's all very unfunny. I wish Strahan would just boo loudly off camera when Terry Bradshaw's joke inevitably bombs. Instead, they have a good chuckle that goes on 20 seconds too long.

Thanks to the WSJ, we now have statistical evidence:

"The amount of time they laugh, though, is what sets them apart. The five hosts on Fox’s show—Curt Menefee, Terry Bradshaw, Howie Long, Michael Strahan and Jimmy Johnson—had a combined laughing time of two minutes, 22 seconds. That’s about 11.6% of the 20 minutes, 27 seconds they were shown on set together. Mr. Bradshaw was easily the laughing leader, going for about 92.4 seconds—including 2.5 seconds at the start of the show before anyone said anything.

The CBS crew—Greg Gumbel, Dan Marino, Bill Cowher, Shannon Sharpe and Boomer Esiason—only laughed for 43 seconds. That’s about one-third as much chuckling as the group at Fox. CBS declined to comment. Fox Sports spokesman Lou D’Ermilio says, “If we didn’t tell the guys to stop they would laugh and crack jokes 100% of the time."

Nearly 12% of the time, the ass-jacks on FOX are yucking it up! This is why nobody likes you Terry Bradshaw. This is why.

Mrs. JP and I will be leaving in a little over 12 hours to drive down to the rallies in DC. If anyone knows the area well, please tell me where the wifi hot spots are on the Mall or between 3rd and 7th streets since I'll be bringing my Dell and will try to videotape and live-blog the event both here at Pottersville and at my new place.

And if you'll be there, too, look for the screaming lunatic wearing a Jason hockey mask, an official rally tee shirt and a black leather jacket. Mrs. JP will likely be standing a respectable distance away pretending not to know me.

h/t to Midwest Sports Fans and @Hoop_er

Lufthansa student pilot Katharina Spilles
practices in the flight simulator

A half dozen beaming faces greeted me as I entered the dormitory at Lufthansa’s flight school at Phoenix Goodyear Airport in Arizona last night. This was a warm welcome from these heart-breakingly young student pilots.

Now that I'm on the scene consider what they will have to put up with. A woman old enough to be their mother will now be hangin’ with them in the student lounge, peering over their shoulders in the simulator, and saying a fervent prayer as I join them in the school's single-engine Bonanzas. Them bein’ pilots and all, I’m not expecting to have to tell any of them to pipe down upon returning to quarters at three in the morning after a late night of carousing but who knows?

The most gracious welcome though, has to be from Lufthansa German Airlines, the carrier that has agreed to let me spend time here, learning how their pilots are selected and trained as part of the new book I’m writing, FLYING LESSONS.

Loyal readers, you know I’ve been touting the idea that aviation is so far advanced in its understanding of human factors, that many concepts could be used to improve how people perform in other industries. And it seems to me even more important in these days of distraction as everyone juggles more and more streams of information on a myriad of devices.

Over dinner in the academy cafeteria last night with Matthias Kippenberg, president of the Airline Training Center Arizona, we talked about the swell of digital interruptions and the different ways we deal with them.

When he is in the middle of a project, Matthias, a former Lufthansa captain and himself a graduate of the training center says does not stop to take a phone call, or open a newly arrived email.These things can wait as he concentrates on the work at hand.

By contrast, my behavior is more like Alice in Wonderland’s trip down the rabbit hole, as I repeatedly interrupt work on writing assignments to check my email, conduct Google searches, consult my to-do list, and take phone calls. I’m not alone. I see this kind of behavior all over the place, drivers on the phone, movie goers sending text messages. Heck, at my son’s school, students are allowed to listen to their iPods while taking tests.

Is this a problem? I suspect it is. Is complaining about it worthwhile? It isn't. It is what it is.

Which takes me back to the disciplined Capt. Kippenberg. Training and practice have instilled in him a habit of sustained focus in spite of the fact that the typical airplane cockpit is awash in distractions.
In hiring student pilots, Lufthansa looks for applicants who have an ability to multi-task. Workflow management, whatever you call it,  it all adds up to the same thing, performance depends on the ability to triage multiple streams of information setting aside the peripheral and ignoring the irrelevant.

Gathered with a group of five young men in the common area of the dorm Tuesday night, I learned something that gave this easily-distracted matron new hope. These kids are special, sure. But they weren't necessarily born that way. A number said they rely on newly-learned techniques that help them manage incoming information.
Well that means I can learn it too.
So while I may not leave here with the ability to fly solo on any of the little planes with the fetching blue and orange livery, I'm already getting useful life lessons at flight school.

I recognize that we’re all still very depressed from last Saturday’s events. While we may have considered the fact that we could lose to the Giants, I don’t think any of use actually thought that we would. However, after Cody Ross homeruns, Ryan Howard strikeouts and f’in Juan Uribe, our team is no longer playing baseball this year. That fact, sadly, isn’t going to change.

With that, it’s important we look back on the Phillies season we just witnessed with fond memories. After all, they did win 97 games this year (count the five they won in the postseason and they won 102 games). Only the Giants can end up with more total victories (and they have to win the WS to do that). The Phillies swept a postseason series for the first time in their history. Roy Halladay threw a perfect game then a no-hitter in his first playoff start. Placido Polanco made an easy transition to third and played most of the season with a bone-chippy arm. Cole Hamels rebounded big time and put together his best season. Roy Oswalt is now a Phillie. Ryan Madson had another dominate year in the 8th inning. There was a lot to be happy about this year.

But it wasn't all roses. Chase Utley went cold in mid-May, got hurt and was never really the same. Ryan Howard didn’t even hit 35 HR (something a guy with his power really should never NOT do). Raul Ibanez was barely relevant until July. Jimmy Rollins was hurt most of the season. Joe Blanton sucked for two months. Still though, they won 97 games.

Overall the season was a great one, if ultimately unfulfilling. But to kill some time until spring training, while giving you some analysis, I’m here to break it down for you, player by player.

First up (yes, this was done randomly by finger point)…is Raul Ibanez.

It doesn’t take a very perceptive person to see that Raul Ibanez’s year was not as good as his 2009 season. We all know how good Ibanez was through mid-June of last year, he was putting up MVP-type numbers that helped carry the team through their usual first-half malaise. After his injury he never returned to the form of April and May, but that was fine. The team made the World Series anyway and his 13 RBIs in 15 October games helped to alleviate the growing worry that he really was too old. 2010 was going to be big for him (big in proving he wasn't too old).

This year couldn’t have started worse for Ibanez. At the all-star break he had only 7 HR and was batting only .243. In the second half he was a little better, hitting 9 more HR while raising his average up to .275. While you might look at his average and say ‘hey he hit .272 last year’ and think this year wasn’t that bad, it really was. Ibanez was able to keep his OBP high thanks to a career high 10.7% walk rate, but he still only clocked in at .349 (up from .347 last year). That, however, was paired with a steep drop in power, with only a .169 ISO as compared to .280 from 2009 (when he hit his career high 34 HR). When a guy is in your order to help drive in runs, power helps. Ibanez, simply, didn’t have enough for a corner outfielder whose defense is so poor (a -6.9 UZR).

If you look at FanGraph’s pitch type values for Ibanez you can see that he struggled mightily against fastballs this year. A pitch he historically kills, he simply couldn’t generate any results from this year. Now, this could be a one-year anomaly, or it could point to an overall drop in bat speed (which is to be expected from a 38-year old). A major league batter sees fastballs more than any other pitch type, so if he can’t handle them that will make a rebound season next year very difficult for him to produce. It won’t be hard for pitchers to see can’t catch up to the pitch and he’ll continue to see a steady diet of inside fastball and sliders away. Bad news.

Thankfully, Ibanez has just one year remaining on his contract. Although he makes a pretty penny ($12.1M next year) you can still live with that if he produces 1.8 WAR again. He’s probably a $6M player (in value) so the Phillies are only losing $6M on his deal (which isn’t terrible when compared to the $11M value discrepancy in the Howard’s contract, but that's for another time). Ultimately, if the Phillies continue to bat him 7th, he won’t hurt them too much. He doesn’t hit well on the road, and can’t walk against lefties (4:1 K:BB ratio) so if the Phillies platoon him with a RH bat with some pop next year the production from left field should be fine.

Or, he could rebound and hit 30+ HR again. I'm hoping for that.

Joe Blanton up next.

DJ Steve Porter - the same guy who brought us the fantastic Press Hop and Press Hop 2 videos - gives us this outstanding little ditty.  Andy Reid spits hot fire son! 

It was a rought weekend; at least this video gives Philly sports fans a reason to smile.  You may now go back to calling Kenny Britt and Juan Uribe assholes.

By TWW friend Eric

It’s that time of year: Halloween!!! Oh, and the NBA season starting, too. So, here’s a ridiculously in-depth player by player look into (at? on? around?) the 76ers. Coming off of a terrible season, there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Right??

At least Willie Green is gone.  And expect a lot of talk about ball handling. No homo.

09-10 Year in Review:

Last year the Sixers finished 27-55, thanks to Eddie “I have no idea how to coach” Jordan attempting to implement a system that his players couldn’t run, and ultimately stunting the growth of every player on the team. Thaddeus Young and Mareese Speights both took huge steps backwards under the tutelage of coach brace-face, and Elton Brand remained the monumental bust that we were all afraid he would be.

Offseason:

But then, we finally got lucky and wound up with the 2nd pick in the draft! While the #1 pick would have been the franchise changing player we need (though we would have missed out on Jrue’s “I almost just lost my job” face at the lottery), we had the chance to pick up Evan Turner. Not only was Turner a 1st team All-American and National Player of the Year, he was also the consensus #2 pick in the draft and seemed to have attained can’t-miss status. And then…the summer league happened…and preseason…and now I’m seeing the Brandon Roy comparisons turn into Mike Miller comparisons. But I’ll get to that in a moment with my roster breakdown.  For now let’s look at how the roster has changed heading into 2010-11.

Subtractions:

Willie Green, SG – It is quite possible that the Sixers could add 4-5 wins to their total just because they don’t have this guy anymore. Willie Green is the worst player in basketball.

Samuel Dalembert, C – As much as I hate Sammy, his shot blocking will be missed on a team with zero interior defense. This guy may have the lowest basketball I.Q. in the country, and I’m counting people that don’t even watch basketball. For instance, you could walk into the closest hospital and find a new born infant with a higher basketball I.Q. Sammy is famous for goaltending, stealing rebounds from teammates, turnovers, showing up to practice late, forgetting to bring his sneakers, and making angry faces.

Rodney Carney, SF – I always liked Carney, but this isn’t much of a loss. Underrated defender though.

Jason Smith, C – I hated this guy, too. He never showed the mid-range prowess that he was supposed to have. There were flashes of potential during his rookie season, but after blowing out his knee he’s got nothing left. I did see him leaving the locker room last season with two smoking hot blondes. Good for you Jason, good for you.

Francisco Elson, C – who cares.

(I guess I could put Iverson here, but he checked out months before the season ended)

Additions:

Evan Turner, G – Ok, so here’s my chance to panic, convince myself that everything will be ok, and leave you with cautious optimism. Evan Turner has looked terrible so far. Really, really, bad. Last week in a blowout win over the Knicks he played 19 minutes…and scored zero points. From what I’ve seen, he just doesn’t look very aggressive. You can tell that he has the skill to be a great NBA player. He was a terrific rebounder in college, and that always translates to the pros, and he has shown in the preseason that he can pass the ball. His shot looks pretty good, and at times he’s gotten to the line with ease. Why be worried? He hasn’t gelled with Iguodala and he looks lost without the ball in his hands. He might be more of a natural point guard than shooting guard, and that’s fine, but that’s not what we need. I don’t see the same competitive fire and aggressiveness that we saw from this guy at Ohio State. So where does the optimism come from? He has all of the skill needed to be a great player: high basketball I.Q, good form on his jumper, good court vision, good ball handler, etc. Somebody just needs to light a fire under this guy’s ass. That’s not going to happen on the bench, so if he isn’t in the starting line-up at the outset, hopefully he will be by December.

Andres Nocioni, F – Nocioni came over in the Dalembert trade and has been a solid rotation guy over the course of his career. I’d rather he didn’t take minutes away from Thad and Turner, but he’s a better all around player than Kapono and he’s a veteran. Expect 15-20 minutes a game and solid, but far from spectacular play.

Tony Battie, C – He’s getting old, but he’s a decent 5 minutes a game (on a bad team) type big man that won’t kill the team when he’s on the floor.

Spencer Hawes, C – I’ve always been somewhat of a Spencer Hawes fan, but after a promising second season, he didn’t progress like I thought he would last year. He’s a pretty bad defensive player, though he should be good for a block or two a game. Hopefully, the team can take advantage of his ability to stretch the floor with his shooting. If he can open up the lane for guys like Iggy and Jrue to drive to the hoop, then he might work out. He may or may not be the starting center, especially since he is dealing with back issues, but expect 20 minutes a game if he’s healthy, and closer to 30 if he plays well.

Craig Brackins, F – Brackins was a first round pick this year and we got him in the Willie Green trade. I don’t know too much about him, but from what I’ve read he has some upside. He average 16.5 ppg and 8.5 rpg on a terrible Iowa State team. He’s a little old for a rookie, at 23, but who the hell cares. I mean, we got rid of Willie Green. This guy could be the second worst player in basketball and it would be a great trade.

Darius Songaila, F – He stinks.


The rest of the roster:

Andre Iguodala, G/F – By now we all know what we’re getting from this guy. He would be a great #3 guy on a contender, but unfortunately he’s our #1 guy right now. Instead of rehashing what we already know, let’s try and figure out where he can improve. Step 1 would be to stop shooting threes. Iggy should only take jumpers when he’s open, but he loves to pull-up, yell “Kobe!”, and clank one off of the rim. For God’s sake, take advantage of your athleticism and drive to the basket! I understand that he doesn’t have the best ball-handling skills in the world, but he doesn’t have sloppy handles either. Go to the rim, get high percentage looks, and draw fouls. Step 2 is to stop thinking he is a superstar. I’m a little worried that playing for Team USA will hurt in this department, but hopefully it didn’t. Maybe his time as the “defensive stopper” of the squad will lead him to embrace that role. There is no reason he can’t find his way onto one of the All-Defense teams if he commits himself. He needs to realize his limitations and play to his strengths. And Step 3 is to be a leader. If he really wants to be a superstar, then he needs to take this role seriously. A major issue with this team for the past few seasons has been accountability. When one guy does something stupid, someone has to step up and tell them. When a guy misses his rotation on defense, someone has to call them out for it. Without accountability you have a bunch of guys that don’t care if they fuck up. They should care if they fuck up, because that’s bad. Andre can and should be that guy. Doug Collins can only do so much.

Elton Brand, F – Elton is set to make $15,959,099 this year. Yikes. He has slimmed down this year, so hopefully he can regain some of the explosiveness that made him one of the NBA’s top rebounders with the Clippers. He has yet to have a coach in Philly that knows anything about basketball, so maybe Doug Collins will do a better job of utilizing whatever he has left in the tank. It can’t possibly be running on empty, yet. Oh shit, the low fuel light came on.

Jrue Holiday, G – Jrue “Drew” Holiday is the #1 player to be excited about on this team. That’s right, even more than Turner. As the youngest player in the league last season, Jrue showed that he is already good enough to be a starting point guard in the NBA. That’s good because the Sixers play in the NBA. He was the top recruit in the country out of high school, and was compared to Dwyane Wade. Offensively, Jrue has deceptive quickness and is a terrific ball handler. He’s also proven to be a threat from downtown, shooting 39% from 3pt range last year. While I expect that to come down a little bit, he is one of the few guys on this team I trust from outside. He averaged 9.6 points and 4.7 assists as a starter last year, both numbers that I expect will go up. Something like 14 and 6.5 is achievable. Defensively, he has the potential to be one of the best in the league at his position. He has great size for a point guard, and his long arms and good anticipation create havoc in the passing lanes. Expect at least 1.5 steals a game. Don’t forget, this guy was compared to Dwyane Wade. DWYANE WADE. So even if he isn’t good, he should be able to convince the best player in basketball to join the team in a few years.

Thaddeus Young, F – Thad has spent a long time playing out of position in the NBA, and it’s affected him negatively. The good news is that he is still only 22 years old and his coach isn’t named Eddie anymore. Eddie? Really? Our coach was a grown man, with braces, named Eddie. Anyway, Thad’s FG% has dropped each year he’s been in the league. While more shot attempts usually lead to lower percentages, let’s hope he can get back to the 49% from 08-09. He hasn’t really shown the ability to create his own shot, but he has shown the ability to hit open shots and he crashes the offensive boards. Thad averaged just fewer than 2 o-boards a game last year. Lebron James averaged 0.9. Let’s call that a strength. The next step for Thad is being more assertive offensively. If he can start to create his own shots, and continues to score the “flow of the game” type buckets we’re used to, he’ll be deserving of a modest extension at seasons end.

Lou Williams, G – Lou put up career highs across the boards last season. He is the sixth man, and should still see 25 minutes a game. It seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 23, so there is still room for Lou to improve. He can score and plays well defensively, but he’s still a SG stuck in a PG’s body. In the right situation he could compete for Sixth Man of the Year. This probably isn’t that situation, but he’s still one of the best bench players in the league. Expect much of the same from Lou.

Jason Kapono, G/F – He shoots threes and does nothing else. And he has a fan club. White people are crazy.

Jodie Meeks, G – I like this guy. He can flat out score, and he’ll probably find his way into an NBA rotation sooner rather than later. Unfortunately for him, he probably won’t see the court much for this team.

Marreese Speights, F/C – Oh, Marreese. This guy should be on the NBA All-Tweets Team. But, as far as playing basketball, he continues to frustrate. At 23 years old, like most of this team, he’s still young. But he’s gotta show he can stick in the rotation this year, and the team is going to need him to play well. Speights may be the guy that Collins can help the most, because he really needs discipline. Let’s just say you won’t find his picture next to “mature” in the dictionary. And if it was there in some sort of ironic twist, he would have ripped it out to take a pic and tweet it. You could have just taken the pic while it was still in the dictionary, Marreese. He needs to step it up on the defensive end and learn how to play a more team oriented style of offense. Marreese can shoot, but he can’t pass. Or if he can, he just doesn’t. In a perfect world where he was focused on basketball, he would be an 18 and 8 type of guy. In this world? Let’s hope for 14 and 7. And would it kill you to get an assist?


Season Outlook:

I’ll keep this brief, because I’m as worn out as you are if you read this whole thing. The 76ers aren’t a very good team. They lack a go-to scorer or a low-post defensive presence. What they have is potential. With so much of the team 23 and under, there is reason to be optimistic about the future. However, they need to commit to the young guys and continue to struggle before they can get better. They need Evan Turner to be great, and they need another top 5 pick (preferably a big man) that is also great. I hate to be the guy that roots for a higher pick, but I’m just being realistic. If everything goes right for this team, they can hover right below .500, but I expect somewhere in the range of 28-34 wins. If Doug Collins can get anything more than that out of this team, he deserves a cookie.

It sure is fun to make jokes about Brett Favre, isn't it? [insert hilariously clever joke about male genitalia here]. Zing!

In other (and older) Brett Favre Wrangler commercial spoofs...

I know we're all still depressed from a weekend of awful, but hey I've got a little good news for all of us: The Dallas Cowboys' season is over in October. Think about that for a second, they are 1-5. Tony Romo is hurt. BlueStarShockTrooper is still very much into penis (or onto penis, one or the other). Life isn't good right now for us Philadelphia fans, but this does make it a little better.

The fact of the matter is that the Cowboys had this coming. They are a team of douchebags, it's like Dez Bryant instantly quadrupled in douche-ness the second he was drafted. They gloat, talk trash and act like they've accomplished something in the past 15 years. No matter how intoxicating Miles Austin's eyes may be, it doesn't change the fact that the Cowboys deserve to lose. They just do. (Plus, it was only a matter of time before Wade Phillips utter inability to be a head coach reared it's ugly head.)

Anyway, let's all just be happy the Cowboys suck. We can all find a little bit of solace in that.

(Oh and check out this list from Bleacher Report. I know that site sucks, but still, this list is so awful I don't even know when to start.)

Image c/o Ronald Martinez/Getty Images.

Fuck This Weekend - Phillies lose on Saturday, Eagles lose on Sunday, and I head back to work on Monday. I check my fantasy scores and not only did I leave Kenny Britt on the bench, but I'm actually playing against him in two different leagues. So to recap, number 18 for the Titans scored 18 points against my real-life favorite football team, then he went for 47 and 53 against two of my fantasy football teams. I mean...what the fuck is the point? I know he's a Rutgers alum but can't you give me something, God? Anything?

Anyway, what else did we learn? Clockers, Kenny Britt Ate The Eagles, Touchback, Why Burn That Last Timeout?, The TOTALLY STRAIGHT Riley Cooper Dreamboat Meter, and The Eagles are Still Pretty Good.

Clockers - What the hell was that, Tennessee? I know you're in the south and many of the people who attend your games are the same people who pay by the minute for dial-up internet and own an "@hotmail.com" email address, but you've got to be technologically advanced enough to keep a scoreboard going. Watching football without the comfort of Fox's score and clock makes me feel helpless and alone. I'm wandering alone in the middle of an empty meadow. Where am I? What down is it? Is it halftime yet? I'm just glad that Tennessee's wack attack stadium scoreboard didn't affect my ability to watch Cleatus, the football-playing robot do jumping jacks while Kenny Albert's voiceover told me about Visa.

Kenny Britt Ate The Eagles - I know that Nate Allen didn't show us much on Sunday and Britt's first touchdown was more or less his fault, but Ellis Hobbs was the true goat of the game. He was getting beat BADLY on many of KB18's catches. I love to see a Rutgers guy do well in the League, but not like this. Ellis' ineptitude was embarrassing for the Eagles D and, I'm sure, for anyone who knows him personally.

Now I'm certain there were plenty of people clamoring for Sean McDermott to put Asante Samuel on Britt instead -- I was definitely one of them -- but in hindsight I don't know how much it would have mattered. Britt was playing out of his mind and was catching passes on man coverage, zone coverage, brackets, everything. Kenny Britt beat the Eagles on Sunday, and though I'd like to believe our secondary is infinitely improved from last year, he exposed a significant hole in our defense. A interception-seeking gambler on one side, an overrated veteran strong safety, a rookie free safety, and Kenny Britt's bitch on the other side. Is this group weaker than the linebackers?  Does Ellis Hobbs now have to sit down when he pees?

Touchback - What was up with the wind during this game? Both kickers managed to boot the ball for a touchback 10 out of 13 times. Lesson? In Tennessee, THE WIND BLOWS BOTH WAYS. I'm sure Arrested Development has a lyric about this somewhere.

Why Burn That Last Timeout? - It doesn't make sense. You've stopped the Titans twice in a row, there's over 3:50 left on the clock, and you still have the two minute warning. Sure, they can run the clock down to around the 3 minute mark, but don't you want to be able to stop the clock at your will rather than have a few extra ticks now? I know making fun of Andy Reid's dipshittery with the clock is a tired motif, but that fucking walrus really is time-retarded.  Totally moot because of the Colvin fumble, but this could have been the story if Kolb had his shot.

The TOTALLY STRAIGHT Riley Cooper Dreamboat Meter -

Fix your face, bruh.

The Eagles are Still Pretty Good - Make no mistake: the Eagles are a better team than the Titans. Much like how the Falcons probably feel about dropping last week's game in Philly, the Birds have to be equally confident that they are indeed a superior team that was defeated by a few big plays. The game must be played at a high level for 60 minutes and because the final whistle doesn't blow at the end of 45, we ended up taking an L. But remember that this team is playing without its number one receiver, number one quarterback, number one DT, and a sad mix on the offensive line. Do I expect us to ever be completely healthy? Of course not. But I think going 2-1 during a stretch against the Falcons, AT the Niners, and AT the Titans is pretty damn good. Now, things don't get any easier as I can't even name a single "gimme" game left on the schedule. But if Mike Vick can just hold off from throwing picks, the solid run defense this team has shown lately coupled with the big-play ability of Vick, Jackson, Maclin, and McCoy should be enough to propel them to a decent playoff seeding.

Fat Andy is 11-0 after bye weeks but Indy comes to town next.  Here's to seeing some Manningface.

Go Birds.

With a separate Sixers Preview on it’s way, I figured I’d jot down some quick NBA predictions since, ya know, I do predictions so friggin’ well and all. This NBA season promises to be one of the most interesting in recent memory. LeBron's talents have been brought to South Beach, Chris Bosh joined him, Kevin Durant is the best pure scorer since MJ, Shaq is now a Celtic, Dwight Howard has something to prove, Melo should be a Knick or Net at some point, a pending lockout is on the horizon, Evan Turner might suck, John Wall is nasty, the Spurs make their last stand and the Cavs will be terrible. Ultimately, all of that should make for great theater.

So, without further ado: 5 Things That Will Happen This Year:

1) Kevin Durant will win the MVP. It will be difficult for LeBron to win a third straight when Dwayne Wade will likely be just as instrumental in the Heat’s success. Carmelo is too unhappy, Chris Paul doesn’t have enough talent around him and Dirk is simply too boring. I say the award comes down to Durant and an “on a mission” Dwight Howard. A dark-horse could be a healthy Brandon Roy, but that’s never going to happen (the healthy part).

2) John Wall will win the Rookie of the Year award. I know a lot is being made of Blake Griffin, especially with him dominating in the preseason, but Wall is just a special talent. He should immediately be a great defender and he’s way too quick for any point guard in the Eastern Conference to guard (minus Rondo or maybe Jrue). I fully expect him to explode on the scene, think Derrick Rose-type rookie numbers with more assists and steals. You’re looking at an 18/7/4 guy, with a steal or two per game. Unless Griffin goes 22/12 off the bat (which I guess he totally could do) he won’t win the award over Wall.

3) The Miami Heat will win the East. Listen, you’re going to hear a bunch of experts talk about how the Heat won’t gel enough to win and that teams like the Celtics and Magic will play better team basketball (you know, the kind of basketball that wins in the playoffs). You’ll also hear that they don’t have the bench, or the size to match up with Dwight Howard and a Celtic team that throws multiple O’Neal’s (Shaq and Jermaine) and eventually a healthy Kendrick Perkins at you. That may be true, but it’s been a long ass time since we had two of the five best NBA players on the same team. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade might even be the best TWO players in the league (sorry Kobe). Sometimes something looks so plausible that people try to find holes in it since nothing is supposed to be “too good to be true.” Well, this is. The Heat are going to the NBA finals.

4) The Lakers will three-peat as NBA champions. However, I still believe that the Lakers are better than the Heat. As they proved against the Celtics, they have more size than anyone can handle and I’m willing to bet they bring Bynum along slowly this year to make sure he recovers fully from his knee surgery. They won’t need him until the playoffs, so if he’s back before the All-Star break I’d be surprised. The Lakers won’t face too much of a challenge in the conference, the Suns aren’t as good without Amare’s scoring, the Thunder still need a big man and the Spurs are just too old. The Mavs have a team built to win in 2005, the Blazers can’t stay healthy and the Jazz just don’t have enough scorers. Ultimately the Lakers should coast to a meeting with the Heat in the finals. There, I believe their length wins out. Kobe will get ring #6. And you know what that means…

5) The ‘Is Kobe better than Jordan?’ conversation will get really annoying. It already is, but most experts, ex-players, analysts, etc. always say, “Listen, Jordan won six rings. For Kobe to even get into the convo, he’ll have to do the same. Then, we’ll talk.” So, yea, that’s going to happen this year, meaning it’s time to talk. I’m not saying that this is real news per say, since people have been comparing Jordan and Kobe for years. What I’m saying is that Kobe winning another title will stoke the fire to an all-time high, something none of us are prepared for. ESPN has probably already prepared 497 different graphs and charts comparing the two, and PTI and Around the Horn are blocking off all of next June to discuss. Prepare yourselves. You’ve been warned.

East Standings Predictions:
Atlantic Division: Celtics; Knicks; Sixers; Nets; Raptors
Central: Bulls, Bucks, Pacers, Cavs, Pistons
Southeast: Heat, Magic, Hawks, Bobcats, Wizards

West Standings Predictions:
Northwest: Thunder, Blazers, Jazz, Nuggets, Timberwolves
Pacific: Lakers, Suns, Clippers, Kings, Warriors
Southwest: Mavericks, Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, Hornets

Eastern Conference Finals - Heat over Magic

Western Conference Finals – Lakers over Spurs

Finals – Lakers over Heat

Sixers Record – 34 – 48. Evan Turner's rookie line: 11 ppg, 4.5 assists, 4 rebounds. Iggy still doesn't make an All-Star team. Elton Brand averages 16 ppg.

Enjoy the season.

As if we needed another name to add to Philadelphia hate-lore, Juan Uribe threw his name onto that list last night. Uribe's eighth inning, two-out, solo home run served as the difference in what was a weird, sad, unfortunate end to the Phillies season. Three straight World Series appearances just wasn't in the cards and it appears we'll need to put those Game 7 tailgate supplies away (or at least I will). Pure suck.

The Phillies had more than enough opportunities to score runs after their two in the first inning but nobody was able to come up with a season saving hit. Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth...they all failed in big spots last night. It certainly wasn't something we were used to seeing the last two postseasons but it was something that happened plenty this year. Of course, that's a discussion for another time (and another post).

So, while there will be plenty of time to wrap up, dissect and eulogize the Phillies' 2010 season (there will be much more once I stop crying) it's now time to grieve. This Phillies team had the ability to accomplish something special and they weren't able to. That hurts, a whole bunch. I already miss baseball.

See you in the spring, Phils.

[photo c/o Tim Shaffer/Reuters]