Fantasy leagues are won in these middle and late rounds. Nobody should have a problem getting through the first few rounds of a draft - unless you took Matt Forte with your first pick last year, of course. So sit back, relax, and let TheWizWit be responsible for your success - which I'm sure you'll then steal and claim to your friends you had this master plan along.
Now, I'm doing this for free so I'm going to keep things to a minimum of a few players per category. If this is your first time, or you're super pathetic, feel free to email us and we'd be happy to draft a winner for you. The number following each player's name is their current ADP (average draft position) in ESPN drafts.
Your average, mid-round sleepers. Guys that'll out-perform the position you'll draft them:
Dwayne Bowe - 62.5 - Bowe is a guy that got kind of got forgotten about on account of him being an asshole, Todd Haley being stubborn, and Matt Cassel not being very good. But, the talent is there and he comes at a bargain from where he was a year ago.
Justin Forsett - 65.1 - Even though the Seahawks don't seem very inclined to give him the starting job, he's really their best option - by far.
Santana Moss – 82.4 - I think a guy like Santana Moss will thrive now that he has a QB who can air the ball out. Moss is going to catch quite a few 30+ yard passes from McNabb and is going to have a sneaky good year.
Michael Bush - 102.5 - Bush is truly an underrated runner and not many people talk about him. His biggest competition was Justin Fargas who's in Denver now.
Arian Foster - 112.1 - Foster has been picking up steam and his ADP has gotten earlier with each passing week. His competition is Steve Slaton, who is a very dynamic back, but loves to fumble (which was the reason he saw the bench in second half of last season). Slaton even fumbled in the Texans pre-season opener.
Guys that someone will reach for on draft day:
Dez Bryant - A Cowboys fan, or that guy you draft with that loves picking rookies is going to take him a round or two earlier than he deserves. If he's on your team, I'm assuming you were that sucker.
Michael Crabtree - His QB is Alex Smith. Don’t get too antsy in the pantsy here.
Kevin Kolb - I think Kolb is going to have a good year, especially from a fantasy perspective. But if you're reading this blog, you'll be drafting with Eagles fans and one of your buddies will jump all over him a tad early.
Your Deeeeep Sleepers. The REM, you-don’t-realize-you’re-home-is-being-invaded-in-the-middle-of-the-night sleepers:
Matthew Stafford - 131.4 - Stafford may be the guy you draft as a backup QB, but end up wanting to start every week. The Lions defense is buttcheeks, so the offense will be forced to play from behind and throw a lot. He has the weapons to put up nice numbers with Calvin Johnson, Pettigrew, and Jahvid Best. And don’t forget - Stafford had a few great fantasy games as a rookie before getting injured.
Jacoby Jones - 145.8 - Kevin Walter is standing in his way of being a starter on a prolific offense. I really shouldn't have to explain to you how Jones is exponentially more athletic than Walter.
Lance Moore - 170.00 + - He was hurt last year, but the year before he had 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 TDs. As long as Brees is QBing that team, he's EASILY worth a pick in the last rounds of your draft.
Don’t Draft These People. They will kill your team and make Sunday’s un-enjoyable for you:
Hines Ward - 59.2 - There is no way in hell Ward duplicates last season. Or even really comes close to it. With Roethlisberger busy assaulting women for the first month of the season, the Steelers are going to 1.) run a ton and 2.) be forced to use Charlie Batch, Byron Leftwich, or Dennis Dixon. Neither is good for fantasy value. Ward is in his mid 30’s now and just isn’t worth a pick in the 5th round where he's currently going.
TJ Houshmandzadeh – 88.5 - You'll regret this. It's not 2007 and Matt Hasselbeck blows. Remember that.
Darren McFadden – 92.0 - Darren McFadden is a piece of shit. I know from experience. This guy has done a spectacular job of screwing me over in the past and I won't stand for it anymore. He will get hurt. He will frustrate you. You will finally cut him in week 12 and wonder why you're 5-6.
Bonus Sleepers! Because why the hell not?
Chris Cooley - 97.8 - McNabb has no problem dumping off to his tight end and Cooley is going to be a solid starting TE that you can get later in the draft.
Mike Wallace - 80.1 - No more Santonio Holmes. Wallace is the most talented receiver on the roster. Big Ben seemed to give him quite a few looks last year so stash him till Ben’s suspension is donezo.
Malcom Floyd – 134.2 - Vincent Jackson is still holding out. Even when he comes back, he still has to serve a 3 game suspension. The #2 receiver on the Chargers depth chart right now is some guy with the last name ‘Naanee’. So yeah, draft Floyd.
Trying to decide? Go with this guy over that guy:
Ryan Grant over Shonn Greene - Weird feeling I have. Don't have a real reason to give you, but just know I'm smarter than you. Although Shonn Greene is nasty in Madden which naturally makes me want to draft him, he’s not a good receiver and won’t really see the field in those situations.
Calvin Johnson over Reggie Wayne - Don't get me wrong, Reggie Wayne will have a good year, but his production will begin to slowly taper at some point. Calvin Johnson has tremendous upside if he stays healthy. I'm fully expecting Calvin to out-produce Wayne this year.
Tony Romo/Phillip Rivers over Peyton Manning/Tom Brady – Personally, I’m waiting an extra round to get one of the latter two guys than going with Manning or Brady in the second round. The total point difference between these four guys is going to be minimal.
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall – I’m pretty high on Charles this year. He’s one of the most explosive backs in the league. Like top 5 explosive. Thomas Jones should be of no concern to you. Jones is old and won’t be very effective behind the Chiefs O-line. If you’re in a PPR, Charles should rocket up your personal rankings. Mendenhall should have a decent year when all said and done, but I don’t expect a ton of TD’s. He may have a rough start to the year with Ben out considering all 11 guys on defense will be keying in on him.
There you have it. We've now given you a blueprint for a winning squad - and it didn't cost you an overpriced $9 magazine! Gool luck on draft day, fella. Don't fuck it up.